Strong El Niño Could Bring Drier, Hotter Summer To South Africa
The South African Weather Service is forecasting below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across much of the country from October 2026 to January 2027.
South Africa could face a hotter and drier spring and summer as a developing El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean strengthens, the South African Weather Service (Saws) has warned.
Saws forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over most of the country between October and December 2026, with similar conditions expected from November 2026 to January 2027.
The weather service said current forecasts indicate that the developing El Niño could become the strongest in living memory.
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal. A strong event is defined as temperatures more than 1.5°C above average for three consecutive months, while a very strong event exceeds 2°C.
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Drier Conditions Expected Across Much Of Country
Saws said its latest seasonal forecast indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome across most of South Africa between October and December.
The November-to-January forecast is similarly expected to favour warmer and drier conditions.
“The latest seasonal forecast of the South African Weather Service for the October to December 2026 period indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome over most of South Africa. This period is also very likely to be associated with above-normal temperatures,” Saws said.
It added that the November 2026 to January 2027 outlook was “very similar”, with drier and warmer conditions expected to dominate over much of the country.
El Niño events have historically been associated with reduced rainfall and higher temperatures across southern Africa, although their effects vary between individual events.
El Niño Does Not Always Mean Drought
Saws identified the 1982-83 and 2015-16 El Niño events as among the most significant for southern Africa, with both associated with widespread drought and severe heatwaves.
However, the weather service cautioned against assuming that every El Niño automatically results in drought across South Africa.
The 1997-98 event, for example, was associated with slightly above-normal rainfall in parts of the country's summer rainfall region.
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“It should therefore be noted that, although below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome in southern Africa this summer, not every single El Niño event is associated with drought,” Saws said.
The final strength of the current event and its precise regional effects remain uncertain.
Heatwaves And Water Scarcity A Concern
Saws warned that the effects of El Niño could be compounded by ongoing global warming, increasing the likelihood of frequent and potentially severe heatwaves during the period.
“If the 2026-27 El Niño event brings the expected below-normal rainfall to southern Africa, it is likely that a high frequency of heatwaves will co-occur. These heatwaves have the potential to be severe,” the weather service said.
Saws said it would continue monitoring developments and communicating forecasts concerning potential heatwaves and water scarcity.
The weather service stressed that the strength and regional impact of the El Niño event could still change as the season approaches, making continued monitoring important for planning and preparedness.
