ANC Faces Metro Setbacks As Polls Point To More Hung Councils In 2026 Elections

The ANC could lose further ground across South Africa’s major metropolitan municipalities in the 2026 local government elections, with new polling suggesting several of the country’s biggest cities are heading for fiercely contested coalition governments.

But the decline in ANC support does not necessarily represent a wholesale shift towards the DA.

Instead, political analysts say voters are increasingly dispersing their support among several parties, raising the prospect of more hung councils and complicated coalition negotiations after the elections.

Polling published by market research company Ipsos on 4 September projected national ANC support at 31%, down sharply from the 45.6% the party received in the 2021 local government elections.

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Separate polling published by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF) on 9 September projected the ANC at 34% among likely voters nationally, followed by the DA at 27%, uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) at 15% and the EFF at 7%.

That survey was conducted between 8 and 31 July, used a turnout model of 53% and reported a margin of error of 2.1%.

Its findings also pointed to significant fragmentation among black voters, with support divided between the ANC at 36%, MK at 24%, DA at 13%, EFF at 12% and smaller parties collectively at 15%.

ANC Decline Does Not Automatically Mean DA Surge

Dr Ongama Mtimka, a lecturer in the Department of History and Political Studies at Nelson Mandela University, described the trend as “dynamic fragmentation”.

“The trend that we are seeing in South Africa is what I’ve called dynamic fragmentation. We are seeing a reduction in the dominance of the ANC as a party without a corresponding rise of a rival party that has got any meaningful challenge to the ANC,” Mtimka said.

“So, the DA is rising steadily, but remains constrained when it comes to a decisive shift of electoral preferences.”

The Ipsos projections illustrate that fragmentation.

The ANC is projected to lose its outright majorities in Buffalo City and Mangaung and suffer declines across the other metros.

But the DA is also projected to lose its outright majority in Cape Town.

According to the Ipsos numbers, MK is the only major party projected to secure an outright majority in any of the eight metros, with the party polling at 55% in eThekwini.

The polling comes as the ANC faces an electoral dispute with the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) after the party failed to submit candidates on time in several Eastern Cape municipalities.

The ANC blamed the problem on an alleged technical glitch. The IEC disputed that there had been a technical failure on its side and refused to reopen its candidate submission portal.

The party has also not finalised its mayoral choices in several major metros, having published a list of 42 potential candidates across all eight metropolitan municipalities.

Turnout Could Change The Picture

The projections remain highly dependent on voter turnout.

In the Ipsos research, only about a third of respondents said they were very interested in elections and politics, while 34% said they were not very interested. The remainder fell between those positions.

The SRF has similarly cautioned that raw polling responses can differ substantially from projected election results once turnout assumptions are applied.

Questions have also been raised about how opinion polling should be interpreted.

Joel Netshitenzhe, executive director of the Mapungubwe Institute, argued in an opinion article that polling can both reflect and influence political sentiment and warned that interpretations can be affected by researcher bias.

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“Opinion polls can act as both cause and effect of voter sentiment. The pollsters purport merely to reflect preferences of the electorate. But polls can also inspire or demoralise an election campaign; and their interpretations can be weaponised to sway public opinion,” he wrote.

The metros will be among the most fiercely contested battlegrounds of the election.

IEC figures show Johannesburg has 80 parties contesting proportional representation seats, followed by Tshwane with 72, eThekwini with 70 and Ekurhuleni with 69.

Beyond party politics, deteriorating infrastructure, municipal finances, housing shortages and service delivery are expected to feature prominently in voters’ decisions.

Buffalo City: ANC Majority Under Threat

Buffalo City could produce one of the closest contests.

Ipsos projects the DA at 33%, followed by the ANC at 29% and EFF at 27%.

That would represent a dramatic reversal for the ANC, which secured 59.43% in 2021.

Potential candidates include the EFF’s Mkhululi Dlevu. The ANC has listed incumbent mayor Princess Faku, former deputy minister Nocawe Mafu, Simphiwe Dzengwa and Ncedo Kumbaca among its possible candidates.

The DA has announced ward candidates but has not selected its mayoral candidate.

Service delivery and municipal finances are likely to feature prominently.

The Auditor-General found Buffalo City recorded a R996.01 million deficit in the 2024/25 financial year.

Water losses reached R187.49 million, equivalent to 41.4% of its water, while electricity losses totalled R831.43 million, or 32.2%.

The metro also reported a housing backlog of 119,024.

Cape Town: DA Still Leads But Majority At Risk

Cape Town remains the DA’s strongest metro, but Ipsos projects the party at 46% — below the outright majority it has traditionally enjoyed.

The DA received 58.26% in 2021.

The ANC is projected at 26%, followed by the EFF at 11% and Patriotic Alliance at 8%.

Mtimka said the DA’s projected decline in Cape Town also supports the argument that South African politics is fragmenting rather than simply moving from ANC to DA dominance.

Incumbent mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is the DA’s candidate, while EFF MP Nontando Nolutshungu and the PA’s Cheslyn Daniels are also among the mayoral contenders. The ANC has yet to confirm its candidate.

The City received an unqualified audit with findings for 2024/25, its first such outcome since 2020/21.

It recorded R112.03 million in water losses and R771.97 million in electricity losses, while its housing backlog remains above 400,000 units.

Ekurhuleni: ANC And DA Face Crowded Contest

In Ekurhuleni, Ipsos projects the ANC at 24%, down from 38.2% in 2021.

The DA follows at 21%, MK at 18% and ActionSA at 13%.

The projected numbers leave no party close to governing alone.

Potential mayoral candidates include the DA’s Khathutshelo Rasilingwane, MK’s Thulani Shongwe and ActionSA’s Xolani Khumalo.

The ANC’s possible candidates include incumbent mayor Nkosindiphile Xhakaza, Jongizizwe Dlabathi, Pelisa Nkunjana and Ntombi Mekgwe.

Ekurhuleni received a qualified audit for 2024/25, with the Auditor-General raising concerns about the City’s ability to continue operating.

The metro recorded a R656.52 million deficit, R3.07 billion in electricity losses and R1.27 billion in water losses.

Its housing backlog exceeds 283,000 units.

Johannesburg: Country’s Economic Hub Up For Grabs

Johannesburg is shaping up to be another major coalition battleground.

Ipsos projects the ANC in first place with 31%, down from its 36% result in 2021, with the DA close behind at 28%.

ActionSA is projected at 14% and the EFF at 8%.

Separate Common Sense and SRF polling has produced a different picture, illustrating the uncertainty surrounding the race.

Its second-quarter 2026 data put the DA at 42%, ANC at 18% and MK at 13%.

The mayoral contest includes the DA’s Helen Zille, ActionSA leader and former Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba and the EFF’s Dr Tlaleng Mofokeng. The ANC has not confirmed its candidate.

Johannesburg received a qualified audit for 2024/25.

The City recorded R2.82 billion in water losses, representing 44.8%, and R5.67 billion in electricity losses, or 30%.

Its housing backlog exceeds 431,000 units.

Tshwane: DA Projected To Lead

Ipsos projects the DA at 31% in Tshwane, ahead of the ANC at 22%.

ActionSA is projected at 11% and the EFF at 9%.

The Common Sense and SRF research produced a substantially stronger projection for the DA, putting it at 42%, followed by the ANC at 32%, Freedom Front Plus at 8% and ActionSA at 7%.

Under that scenario, the DA and FF+ could potentially have sufficient combined support to form a governing coalition.

Leading mayoral contenders include former DA mayor Cilliers Brink, ActionSA incumbent mayor Dr Nasiphi Moya, FF+ candidate Willie Spies and EFF treasurer-general Omphile Maotwe.

The ANC has not confirmed its candidate.

Tshwane received a qualified audit opinion for 2024/25 and recorded R1.70 billion in water losses and R3.27 billion in electricity losses.

Its housing backlog stands at more than 508,000 units.

eThekwini: MK Could Break The Coalition Pattern

eThekwini stands apart from the other metros because Ipsos projects one party securing an outright majority.

MK is projected to win 55% in what will be its first local government election.

The DA follows at 17%, while the ANC — which received 42.14% in 2021 — is projected to fall to 10%. The IFP is projected at 6%.

The SRF poll presents a considerably closer contest, however, projecting MK at 33%, DA at 23%, ANC at 18% and IFP at 16%.

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MK’s mayoral candidate is Apostle Mxolisi Phakathi, while the DA is fielding Haniff Hoosen and the IFP has Mkhuleko Hlengwa.

The ANC’s possible candidates include incumbent mayor Cyril Xaba, Nomusa Dube-Ncube, Mina Soma-Lesoma, Thabani Everson Nyawose and Maggie Govender.

eThekwini received an unqualified audit report for 2024/25.

The municipality nevertheless recorded water losses of R2.91 billion, representing 58.7%, and electricity losses of R1.91 billion.

Its housing backlog exceeds 474,000 units.

Mangaung: ANC Could Lose Former Stronghold

Mangaung is another traditional ANC stronghold where Ipsos projects the party losing its lead.

The DA is projected at 36%, followed by the ANC at 32%, EFF at 17% and MK at 5%.

The ANC won 50.63% of the vote in Mangaung in 2021.

Potential mayoral contenders include DA MP Werner Pretorius, EFF MP Sam Matiase and MK’s Mapaseka Mothibi. The ANC has not confirmed its candidate.

The Auditor-General gave Mangaung an unqualified audit for 2024/25 but has repeatedly raised concerns about the municipality’s ability to remain operational.

The metro spent R272.50 million on infrastructure maintenance and recorded R495.55 million in water losses, equivalent to 48%.

Its housing backlog is expected to exceed 77,000 units.

Nelson Mandela Bay: ANC And DA Locked At 37%

Nelson Mandela Bay could produce one of the closest results of the election.

Ipsos projects both the ANC and DA at 37%.

The EFF follows at 8%, with ActionSA and the Patriotic Alliance each projected at 5%.

Potential mayoral candidates include former DA mayor Retief Odendaal and the EFF’s Sinawo Thambo.

The ANC’s potential candidates include Andile Lungisa, incumbent mayor Babalwa Lobishe, Xolani Vela and Ntombi Nama.

Nelson Mandela Bay received a qualified audit outcome for 2024/25 and recorded a R150.04 million deficit.

The metro lost R392.56 million worth of water, representing 52.7%, and R1.48 billion worth of electricity, equivalent to 26.8%.

Its housing backlog exceeds 100,000 units.

Coalition Politics Could Define The Election

Taken together, the polling suggests the defining story of the 2026 local elections may not simply be how much further the ANC falls, but what replaces its former dominance.

In most metros, no opposition party is currently projected to replace the ANC with an outright majority.

Instead, several parties could find themselves negotiating for power after voters deliver another collection of hung councils.

Mtimka warned that the fragmentation creates “a much higher probability that there would be a scramble for several more municipalities as they shift from dominant party systems to hung councils”.

The final outcome will depend heavily on turnout, campaign developments and whether polling preferences hold when voters enter the polling booth.

For South Africa’s biggest cities, however, the available polling points towards an election in which outright majorities become increasingly rare and coalition politics increasingly decisive.